Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.